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đŸ”„ Alvaro minutes: Auction House Shuffle + Louis Fratino

Markets shift, eyes peeled

Author

Alvaro from Frame & Flame
January 22, 2025

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-In a Minute-

đŸ”„ Words I Like: savage, hype, meltdown

Auction Houses Go Full Shuffle Mode

The big three auction titans just made leadership changes so fast you’d think they’re swapping CEOs like trading cards. Fresh power moves at Christie’s and Phillips have left Sotheby’s feeling jittery, and everyone’s eyes are glued to Asia to see where the next boss might emerge. Collectors from China, Japan, and Singapore have become the ultimate sugar daddies, but a few bruising market dips show that nobody’s bulletproof.

Newcomers in the C-suite aim to fix two years of contraction—what they call “strategic realignment,” but I call “please stop the bleeding.” Meanwhile, Artnet’s founder is finally stepping away after three decades; investors are drooling to revamp that site before it turns into a relic. Museums are folding left and right, either shipping their treasures to other institutions or dumping them onto the market to settle debts. I’m watching hawk-eyed for the next wave of high-end deaccessions that could pop up at auctions for a quick collector grab.

Natee Utarit, It would be silly to jealous of a Flower, Part 2, 2024

In Asia, younger buyers are ditching the big, dusty brand names for fresher, wilder statements, and it’s giving me serious “old guard meltdown” vibes. Dealers who snooze on this new taste shift will be stuck slinging overpriced Picassos when the under-35 crowd demands something else entirely. Milan is dreaming of an art-crown comeback, but real estate prices are scaring off half the scrappy independents who once made it cool. The city’s still raking in foreign cash, though, so maybe a few starry blue-chip galleries will plant flags and chase that investor glow.

If you’re hunting for deals, watch the museum closures and corporate restructurings like a hawk, because someone always wants to liquidate a masterpiece on the sly. Focus on artists with a global spin who still feel edgy, then haggle until they hate you (they’ll probably sell anyway). The overall vibe is savage, the hype is real, and the meltdown potential is sky-high—so fasten your seatbelts and snag what you can.

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-Today’s Catch-

Louis Fratino

Louis Fratino, Red Figure, 2017

💭 My 2 Cents: Red Figure by Louis Fratino is a cool little gem that punches above its weight. At £15,000, it’s practically a bargain compared to his six-figure paintings. It’s watercolor on paper—so less “majestic masterpiece,” more “intimate treasure.” Still, Fratino’s modernist influences and queer themes make it resonate with buyers who crave depth and authenticity. The bigwigs love him, and I’m not complaining.

🔑 Key Numbers: Recent data shows a 95% sell-through rate and an average of around $90k for his 2017 works. The market dipped 40% in 2023 then recovered slightly, which means demand remains solid. Fratino’s hammer ratios may have cooled from their 2021 high, but they still outperform estimates. Liquidity sits near 0.95, so reselling later looks promising.

🧠 Why It’s a Smart Pick: Strong institutional backing (Venice Biennale, museum shows) meets a low relative price. This piece gives the brand-name Fratino experience without the brand-name sticker shock. Collectors keen on figurative art get a likely winner with upside potential—always a sweet deal.

-Whenever You Are Ready-

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See you soon!

-Alvaro (@theartmarketguy)

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Disclaimer
Not financial advice. Frame&Flame is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions.