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- π₯ Lots to Watch - Works of Kerry James Marshall, Avery Singer, Derek Fordjour, and 2 other finds
π₯ Lots to Watch - Works of Kerry James Marshall, Avery Singer, Derek Fordjour, and 2 other finds
Plus, Warhol's digital Debbie Harry portrait hits market at $26 million
HEY YβALL! π₯
Thanks for all the great feedback from the lots I shared last Wednesday!
π Top Picks from the Last Issue:
Iβm excited to share 5 artists worth checking out for this week.
Today's issue is brought to you by Cohart, the revolutionary mobile art storefront empowering visual artists to monetize their creativity and keep 95% of their earnings.
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-Hunted Lots-
1) Kerry James Marshall
Kerry James Marshall, PAST TIMES, 1997
πBio: American, 1955
πPrice Range: $40,000 - $60,000
π° Record Price: $21,114,500 for PAST TIMES, sold at Sotheby's New York in 2018.
π Main Market: U.S
π Data Insights
π My 2 Cents: Kerry James Marshall's market is giving us a masterclass in artistic value. Born in '55, his focus on Black figures in Western art contexts is truly groundbreaking. The numbers are fascinating: an 85.7% sell-through rate for paintings, 92.6% for prints, and a 46% year-over-year price growth from 2023 to 2024. What's really interesting is the decreased market volatility, from 4.39 in 2022 to 1.66 in 2024. I think this shows market maturation, with prices stabilizing at higher levels. Marshall's credentials are impeccable - a MacArthur "Genius" grant, major retrospectives, and his work in top institutions. The upcoming Royal Academy show in 2025? I believe it'll be a game-changer. There's a flip side, though. The market's very U.S.-centric - 93% of sales volume. It's a strength, but also a potential weak spot. That 3,889% price growth in the UK from 2022 to 2023 hints at untapped international potential. For collectors, I'm eyeing the prints segment. High sell-through rate, relatively accessible $14,122 average price - it could be perfect for new collectors. That projected 5-year investment return of 38% is tempting, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. The market's already seen incredible growth, and there's always the risk of saturation. In my view, Marshall's market shows all the signs of a blue-chip artist, with room for growth. Watch how supply meets the growing demand, especially with projects like the Washington National Cathedral stained glass.
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2) Avery Singer
Avery Singer, Happening, 2014
πBio: American, 1987
πPrice Range: $60,000 - $90,000
π° Record Price: $5,253,000 for Happening, sold at Sotheby's New York in 2022.
π Main Market: U.S & Hong Kong
π Data Insights
πMy 2 Cents: Remember when digital art was niche? Avery Singer is changing that, and the market's paying attention. Her blend of 3D modeling and computer-controlled airbrushing is redefining painting in the 21st century. Since 2013, Singer's career has skyrocketed. The numbers are compelling: from 2017 to 2024, we've seen a 3962% average price increase. With an 80.75% sell-through rate, demand clearly outstrips supply. Singer's market is going global. While the USA leads, Hong Kong's emerging strong, with the UK and Germany showing growing interest. Her paintings, averaging $1.1 million each with an 80.4% sell-through rate, dominate her market. The $1 million+ segment has boomed from zero in 2017 to multiple sales in 2024. But it's not all rosy. The market's focus on paintings could be risky if trends shift. And while a 3.87% average annual return is solid, it's not breaking records. The potential 19.36% over 5 years is more exciting, but in art, nothing's guaranteed. Looking ahead, Singer's got a European institutional show in early 2025 and possibly a monograph coming. These could fuel further market growth. But with only 22 sales at the 2021 peak, we're in a tight market. Scarcity drives prices up but limits entry points for new collectors. I believe Singer represents a bet on painting's future, bridging digital natives and traditional art lovers. But at these prices, we're beyond emerging artist territory. The growth curve might be flattening, so timing and selection are crucial. In my view, Singer's market showcases innovation's power, capturing our digital age's zeitgeist. For collectors ready to navigate high stakes, rewards could be substantial. Just remember, in a hot market like this, keeping your cool is key.
3) Derek Fordjour
Derek Fordjour, Ornithologist 2022
πBio: American, 1974
πPrice Range: $50,000 - $70,000
π° Record Price: $945,000 for Ornithologist, sold at Christie's New York in 2022.
π Main Market: U.S
π Data Insights
π My 2 Cents: Fordjour's artistic journey is as fascinating as his work. Born in '74 to Ghanaian parents, he didn't hit the scene until after his 2016 MFA from Hunter. Since then, it's been quite a ride. His unique style - a mix of collage, cardboard, foil, and even Financial Times - isn't just visually striking; it's a powerful commentary on race, identity, and power structures. And the market's loving it. We're talking a 4,282% price jump from 2017 to 2024, with a 100% sell-through rate. That's not just growth; it's explosive. Fordjour's appeal is global, with significant expansion into Hong Kong. His "SCORE" exhibition last year blended sports, music, and life milestones, showcasing his innovative, multidisciplinary approach. Collectors range from BeyoncΓ© to major institutions like the Whitney and LACMA, indicating broad appeal and potential market stability. Financially, the numbers are impressive. A Sharpe Ratio of 0.735 and Sortino Ratio of 8.548 suggest strong risk-adjusted returns. Projections hit $535,745 by 2029, but we're also seeing increased volatility. In my view, his works on paper offer an accessible entry point while capturing his artistic essence. Looking ahead, Fordjour's upcoming talk at Anderson Ranch could offer valuable insights into his future directions. His market presents an exciting opportunity, but one that requires a discerning eye.
4) Sarah Slappey
Sarah Slappey, Black Pearls II 2020
πBio: American, 1984
πPrice Range: $20,000 - $60,000
π° Record Price: $129,600 for Black Pearls II, sold at Phillips Hong Kong in 2022.
π Main Market: Hong Kong
π Data Insights
π My 2 Cents: Sarah Slappey's market trajectory is a masterclass in momentum, but it's as complex as it's thrilling. Her average price skyrocketed from $949 to $66,278 - headline-making growth that demands closer inspection. Born in '84, Slappey bridges a generational divide, appealing to millennials and Gen Z alike. Her 2016 MFA from Hunter College provided technical prowess, but it's her unique blend of Southern-inspired femininity and surrealism that's driving her success. The 100% sell-through rate in 2021 and 2022 is impressive, but we're dealing with a small volume of works. It's classic supply and demand, pushing prices skyward. Institutional backing from Hirshhorn, ICA Miami, and Columbus Museum of Art provides long-term market stability. Slappey's strategic expansion into Hong Kong and London diversifies her collector base beyond New York. That 6,884% year-over-year growth? It's unsustainable. I believe we're entering a critical phase, with upcoming London and Venice shows testing her international appeal. For collectors, timing is crucial. Focus on her most distinctive works - they're statements on 21st-century feminist art evolution. Whispers about expansion into new media and larger scale works are intriguing. It's risky, but could redefine her market. I'm tempering expectations on returns - my prediction is 10-15% annual growth, down from the potential 22.65%. In my view, Slappey's market is at a fascinating inflection point. It's a calculated risk with significant upside, especially for collectors eyeing emerging contemporary artists. But agility is key - watch those solo shows and market responses closely. The next 12-18 months could determine whether Slappey becomes a market mainstay.
5) Mernet Larsen
Mernet Larsen, Cardplayers 2013
πBio: American, 1940
πPrice Range: $15,000 - $20,000
π° Record Price: $79,344 USD for Cardplayers, sold at Phillips London in 2019.
π Main Market: U.S
π Data Insights
π My 2 Cents: In my view, Mernet Larsen's story is a testament to late-career breakthroughs in the art world. At 83, she's not just surviving; she's thriving. I think her journey really took off in 2012 with her first NYC solo show at 72, culminating in a staggering 3,663% year-over-year price jump in 2019. Looking at the numbers, there's a lot to unpack. An 85.7% sell-through rate for paintings is impressive, and consistent sales in the $50,000-$100,000 range from 2019-2023 show solid demand. Interestingly, the UK has emerged as a key market with the highest average price. However, we can't ignore the volatility, with a peak in total sales volume at $197,552 in 2019 followed by some ups and downs. Larsen's art itself is unique, blending everyday scenes with geometric abstraction. It's visually striking and conceptually rich, drawing from Japanese emaki scrolls and Russian Constructivism. I believe this cross-cultural appeal resonates particularly well with younger collectors, creating an intergenerational appeal that's quite rare. Looking ahead, the projections are intriguing. A 5-year ROI of 29.87% and a forecasted price growth to $13,634 by 2029 are certainly enticing. The Sharpe Ratio of 0.44 indicates positive risk-adjusted returns, though it's not astronomical. For collectors, I think the sweet spot seems to be emerging in the $10,000-$50,000 range. In my view, Larsen's market represents an interesting opportunity for collectors interested in late-career artists with solid institutional backing.
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-Alvaro (@theartmarketguy)
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