🔥 Lots to Watch - Works of Wolfgang Tillmans, Jason Martin, Peter Lindbergh, and 2 other finds

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HEY Y’ALL! 🔥

Thanks for all the great feedback from the lots I shared last Wednesday!

📈 Top Picks from the Last Issue:

1. Maureen Gallace, Pine Creek, 2024 (Waiting for results)

2. Nathaniel Mary Quinn, Stricken With Fear, 2020 (Waiting for results)

3. Ida Ekblad, THE BUTT AND OYSTER, 2024 (Waiting for results)

I’m excited to share 5 artists and lots worth checking out for this week.

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1) Thomas Nozkowski

• 📍Bio: American, 1944 - 2019

• 📊Price Range: $6,000 - $9,000

• 💰 Record Price: $69,850 for Untitled, sold at Sotheby's New York in 2023.

• 🌎 Main Market: U.S

• 📋 Data Insights

💭 My 2 Cents: This piece exemplifies Nozkowski's intimate scale works that are gaining momentum. The data shows his average prices have more than doubled since 2020. What's interesting is that this work comes from his early 2000s period, when he was really nailing those biomorphic forms that collectors are after. I've got to point out, Nozkowski's market has had its ups and downs. We saw a slowdown in the mid-2010s, but since his passing in 2019, there's been renewed interest. I think this lot is benefiting from that resurgence. The estimate seems conservative, especially considering its provenance. While Max Protetch Gallery carries weight in New York circles, it's worth noting that Rosa Esman and Diane Brown Gallery were also instrumental in Nozkowski's career. We've seen a lot of recent works from the Esman collection, but the real goldmine has been Emily Fisher Landau's collection. She put on her own Nozkowski retrospective back in 2008 at her center, which really boosted his profile. The size of this piece is noteworthy. At 12.63 x 15.88 inches, it's close to one of Nozkowski's signature sizes. He famously worked in two main formats: 16" x 20" and 22" x 28" on canvas board. There's a great backstory here - Nozkowski deliberately rejected the grandiose scale of Abstract Expressionism. He wanted to "paint at a size that was scaled to my friends' apartments, that could hang in a three-room walk-up tenement" in Manhattan. He chose canvas board, a material often used by amateurs, which adds an interesting dimension to his work. Our data indicates these smaller works are outperforming larger canvases, with paintings averaging $17,000. This one could potentially exceed that. I'm of the opinion that Nozkowski's market is just getting started. The recent "Everything in the World" show at Pace Gallery has rekindled interest in his early works. Plus, with the current focus on abstract painters who try new things, Nozkowski is gaining traction.

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2) Jason Martin

• 📍Bio: British, 1970

• 📊Price Range: $20,000 - $30,000

• 💰 Record Price: $146,725 for Origin, sold at Phillips London in 2023.

• 🌎 Main Market: U.K

• 📋 Data Insights

💭My 2 Cents: Jason Martin's "Thrace" from 2012 is catching my eye. This piece embodies Martin's iconic style - that captivating fusion of painting and sculpture he's been refining since the late '90s. I'm seeing real potential here. The 15,000 - 23,000 USD estimate feels cautious, especially considering Martin's 2012 average price hit $52,000. Yes, the market's softened since then, but Martin's numbers are still impressive. At 78.25 x 94 inches, it's a hefty piece. Historically, Martin's larger works have fetched higher prices, and this one is big enough to get noticed. Provenance-wise, Galerie Forsblom carries weight, and the Helsinki exhibition adds depth to its story. It's not top-tier, but it's solid. Zooming out, Martin's market has had many ups and downs. Prices peaked around 2015-2016, dipped, then started climbing again post-2020. I think we're at a point where his works are undervalued but showing recovery signs. One key factor: Martin's market is UK-heavy. In 2024, 65% of his sales volume was UK-based. This Sotheby's London sale? It's right in his comfort zone. Here's what's got me thinking: Martin's been experimenting lately. This 2012 piece is classic oil-on-aluminum Martin. I suspect we might see renewed interest in these earlier works as collectors start distinguishing between his artistic phases. There's risk, of course. Martin's market can swing wildly - his 2012 coefficient of variation was 0.74, indicating significant price spread. But his sell-through rate's been strong, hitting 77.78% in 2023 and 81.82% in early 2024. People are buying. My take? This piece could outperform its estimate. It's got the size, the signature style, and it's hitting the market at a pivotal moment in Martin's career.

3) Peter Lindbergh

• 📍Bio: German, 1944 - 2019

• 📊Price Range: $10,000 - $13,000

• 💰 Record Price: $240,648 for Christy Turlington, Los Angeles, American Vogue, sold at Christie's London in 2017.

• 🌎 Main Market: U.K & U.S

• 📋 Data Insights

💭 My 2 Cents: This 1989 Lindbergh shot of Linda Evangelista is a real gem. I'm seeing a perfect storm of factors that could make this piece hot. First off, the timing is impeccable. We're in the midst of a '90s revival in fashion and pop culture, and this image is essential '90s supermodel era. Lindbergh's black-and-white aesthetic feels both timeless and incredibly current. Now, let's talk edition size. This is number 1 of 3. That's incredibly rare and adds significant value. The provenance is spotless too, coming directly from Lindbergh's studio. That's crucial for authenticity and condition. Looking at the broader Lindbergh market, we've seen some interesting patterns. His average prices peaked around 2016 at about $55k, dipped, but have been steadily climbing since 2020. This piece's estimate of $38k to $64k sits right in that sweet spot. I'm particularly excited about the recent institutional attention Lindbergh's been getting. The "Lightness of Being" exhibition at Fotografiska and his inclusion in the V&A's "Beyond Fashion" show have significantly boosted his profile. I believe we're approaching a major Lindbergh moment. However, I'd be remiss not to mention the risks. The photography market can be unpredictable, but in my view, this piece has serious long-term potential. It's not just a photo; it's an important piece of fashion history.

4) Wolfgang Tillmans

• 📍Bio: German, 1968

• 📊Price Range: $15,000 - $20,000

• 💰 Record Price: $785,560 for Freischwimmer #84, sold at Phillips London in 2017.

• 🌎 Main Market: U.K & U.S

• 📋 Data Insights

💭 My 2 Cents: Tillmans' "HMD 1" from 2007 is catching my eye. Being from an edition of 1 plus 1 artist's proof, it's got that scarcity factor that really drives value in this market. Tillmans' price trajectory has been a wild ride. We saw a peak around 2017 with averages hitting $166K, but there's been a cooldown since. I'm sensing a comeback though. That MoMA retrospective and the upcoming Pompidou show in 2025? They're going to shake things up. Institutional backing like this tends to light a fire under collector interest. Tillmans' large-scale works, especially rare ones like this, have serious potential to exceed expectations. We've seen similar sized photos of his break $150K before. What's really got me excited is Tillmans branching out into music. He's been dropping singles throughout 2024. This multi-disciplinary approach is pure gold for building cultural capital, and I'm betting we'll see it reflected in his market value soon. But let's not sugarcoat it - Tillmans' market can be a rollercoaster. His coefficient of variation has been hovering around 1.8 recently. It's not for the risk-averse. Geographically, the UK and US are his strongholds, but I'm noticing growth in Asia, particularly Hong Kong. This global appeal adds some stability to the mix. Long-term, Tillmans has shown impressive staying power. Pieces resold after 5-7 years have seen 50-100% returns. Not bad at all. Compared to his peers, Tillmans is outperforming. His ability to straddle both photography and contemporary art markets gives him an edge.

5) Richard Mosse

• 📍Bio: Irish), 1980

• 📊Price Range: $15,000 - $20,000

• 💰 Record Price: $47,983 for Nowhere to Run (Infra series), sold at Phillips London in 2019.

• 🌎 Main Market: U.K & U.S

• 📋 Data Insights

💭 My 2 Cents: Richard Mosse's "Safe from Harm" is an interesting work that shows the artist's unique way of doing documentary photography. It's from 2012, right before he blew up with "The Enclave" at Venice. I've been crunching the numbers on Mosse's market, and it's looking solid. Average price of $24,000, 77.3% sell-through rate - that's not too shabby. And this being number 1 of 5? That's the kind of detail that gets serious collectors excited. Mosse's prices peaked at $35,000 in 2019, and while we saw a dip (thanks, pandemic), we're on the upswing again. 2024's average is sitting at $20,000, so I'm seeing potential upside here. I'm also looking at where Mosse sells. UK and US markets are his sweet spots, so this Sotheby's London sale? It's perfectly positioned. What really gets me about Mosse is how he keeps his finger on the pulse of global issues. His Amazon work has been making waves, and I think that's going to shine a light back on earlier pieces like this one. But let's talk risk. The market's been a bit unpredictable lately - high coefficient of variation in recent years. That could mean opportunity if you play it smart, though. Mosse's tech angle is what sets him apart for me. Using military-grade imaging? That's the kind of innovation that builds long-term value in this market. Looking forward, I'm feeling good about Mosse's trajectory. That American Academy in Rome residency could shake things up in interesting ways. If you're into photography that's got something to say and does it in a way no one else is, this is one to watch.

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-Alvaro (@theartmarketguy)

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