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- 🔥 The Alpha Game + Jordy Kerwick
HEY Y’ALL!
Thanks for all the great feedback on the David Hockney piece I shared last day!
🔥 ICYMI – Catchs from the Last Weeks:
-Today’s Catch-
Jordy Kerwick
Jordy Kerwick, Mid Season, 2021
💭 My 2 Cents: Kerwick’s Mid Season has "next big thing" vibes, the kind of work that collectors who love flexing their latest market catch won't shut up about at parties. A playing into the art world's obsession with faux-naive fantasies and flashy market flips, but sometimes the hype machine delivers a piece worth betting on.
🔑 Key Numbers: Kerwick pieces exploded at auction in early 2022, hitting six figures overnight (one tiger painting fetched over £200K, a ridiculous jump from gallery prices). Now we're seeing a saner settling around £35K for big canvases, suggesting the initial frenzy is cooling off, good news for anyone wary of paying peak bubble prices.
🧠 Why It’s a Smart Pick: Museums (Thyssen, Denver) already stamped approval, and billionaires locked a few away, limiting prime supply long-term. Kerwick paints fast, yet strong early-period canvases like this survive the hype cycles. Low spread + high visibility = sweet risk-reward for anyone with capitalism in their veins.
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-In a Minute-
🔥 Words I Like: loophole, intel, soft-power
The Alpha Game
Every time a painting moves across a border, gets insured, or lands in a museum storage room, it leaves a footprint. Most people ignore it. The smart ones don’t. They use it. That’s the whole play behind the Data Arbitrage Loop: using forgotten signals to get ahead of public comps and close the deal before it shows up in someone else’s sales report.
While everyone obsesses over auction results, the loop tracks customs filings, loan agreements, storage rotations, and even the assistants posting behind-the-scenes pics of studio installs. All that noise? Structured right, it’s edge.
The loop runs in four moves: capture, clean, model, execute. Done right, it’s self-feeding. You don’t need someone’s opinion on whether it’s “a good buy.” You’ve already built the conviction. The system spotted the pattern.
This is how private sales get locked at -20% below fair value, because someone saw it coming before the auction houses even called.
Now imagine compounding that edge, trade after trade, across artists, cities, and collecting categories 👀
Advisors will tell you it’s all relationships. And it’s true. But those relationships also talk. And if you’re not capturing what they’re leaking (through behavior, movement, structure) you’re just waiting to be outbid.
The next evolution? Frictionless execution: tokenized ownership, automated pricing, direct liquidity matching between buyers sitting on too much cash and sellers too proud to go to auction. When that hits, the real game won’t be spotting undervalued works - it’ll be building pricing logic better than anyone else.
-Whenever You Are Ready-
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See you soon!
-Alvaro (@theartmarketguy)
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